Thus Cheap Money does make addicts of us all!

To keep their economies afloat, Central bankers, at their annual meeting  in Jackson Hole, once again committed to continue or increase the supply of cheap money.  However, some of them are starting to recognize that the outcome of their efforts is increasingly uncertain; perhaps some of them realize deep-down that they can do little more than make rich people even richer for a little while longer. They wait in vain for a dazed public and zonked out politicians to do what it takes to restore healthy economies and fiscally sound governments, while continuing to supply them their drugs of choice.

Cheap credit and abundant money are drugs, and we are long since addicted; requiring ever larger doses just to maintain a semblance of normalcy. However, these drugs don’t produce real economic health, rather they create a set of winners and a compensating set of losers; just as drugs make pushers winners and addicts losers. The winners include creditor nations like China and those executives who use their bloated compensations to loot the resources (real and imagined) of behemoth banks and corporations. The losers in our country include Continue reading

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What happens to you doesn’t change your happiness!

If you won the lottery for $100 million would that make you happier the rest of your life? If you suffered an injury that made you a paraplegic would that make you permanently gloomier? Prof. Dan Gilbert of Harvard says that contrary to a universal belief, it just doesn’t happen that way. In the first part of a fascinating 21 minute video,he cites cases and statistics from his research, which indicate that our brains normally operate around some biologically controlled level of happiness; some of us being naturally much happier than others. People who win lotteries, who suffer life altering injuries or who are incarcerated for years, temporarily feel the way we would expect, but after 3 weeks to a year their brains compensate for their new situations and return them to pre-event levels of happiness. (When you think about it, this is what happens for most of us after a loved one dies.)

Certainly it’s better to win the lottery or a promotion than to be paralyzed in an accident, but external events do not permanently change our natural level of happiness. Since happiness changes from an event or achievement wont endure, then risking everything for a particular objective or to avoid a specific failure is not particularly wise.

Prof. Gilbert goes on to shatter another myth about happiness: that we can predict what will make us happy. Our ability to make good predictions on this subject is pathetic, almost non-existent. For example, Continue reading

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Childish CEO’s whine about adult supervision

It’s time to take the gloves off! As a former CEO, I’m ashamed of the juvenile whining of CEO’s like JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, General Electric’s Jeffrey Immelt, Coca Cola’s Muhtar Kent, Intel’s Paul Otellini and Forbes Magazine’s Steve Forbes .  Like taunting insecure bullies on a playground, they call President Obama names and compare him to Hitler. They allege that more regulations and more taxes are anti-business, as if they were entitled to freely plunder, pollute and corrupt their companies and society. If they were entrepreneurs, or even capable leaders, they would be breaking new ground and seizing new opportunities instead of characterizing themselves as potential victims of big bad government.

I’m not surprised that they behave like teenagers railing against adult supervision. It’s taken decades of benign neglect to wind up with this self-indulgent crop of executives. Men who bleat like this are the natural consequences of broken processes for selecting and supervising CEOs, lenient treatment for the last 30 years by Federal and State governments, inherited wealth, and a public mesmerized by money and power.

Instead of entrepreneurs, leaders or even managers, we have a crop of bureaucratic administrators capable only of using their powers of potentates to tip toe along safe, traditional paths of size and domination while expecting the public and governments to subserviently make it easier for them. Instead of embracing and using uncertainty to competitive advantage, they fear it and expect the rest of us to sacrifice ourselves in order to make it more certain for them to plunder their companies with exorbitant compensations and golden parachutes while bloating their egos with unwarranted respect and adulation. 

It’s time for adult supervision; let them cry, whine, quit and get fired. Those things, like the tantrums of spoiled children required to behave like mature adults or the painful screams of a heroin addicts withdrawing cold-turkey, will be signs that we’ve Continue reading

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Book Review: “Free Trade Doesn’t Work”

Are you concerned about economics or global trade? If so, buy, read, study and refer to “Free Trade Doesn’t Work: what should replace it and why” by Ian Fletcher. It ranks in my top five books on economics. It’s that good! The title makes bold claims; the content delivers.

In his effective 267 pages of text, Ian Fletcher dissects and often demolishes fundamental teachings about the benefits and risks of trade and replaces them with evidence based updates.  He then recommends a practical alternative based on clear objectives. He wastes no time on polemics or blame as he provides easily understood and well documented evidence sprinkled with stimulating analogies to support his thesis. He displays a refreshing and sensible appreciation of how we got ourselves into the economic mess we’re in and why so few economists speak out against conventional wisdom, even though most of them probably know better.  His clear and simple explanations of complicated issues remind me of an old axiom: “The better you understand something, the more simply you can explain it.”

Free Trade Doesn’t Work has three sections: The Problem in which we are mired, The Real Economics of Trade in which evidence and history contradict the prevalent mythology and The Solution a relatively simple but politically controversial alternative to Free-Trade that has been successfully practiced in disguised forms by the Japanese and Chinese, among others. 

The Problem section describes our stumbling embrace of free trade without a strategic objective. Its causes are multi-dimensional but include short-term gratifications and fallacious beliefs about the automatic benefits of trade and its natural corrective mechanisms. One of the most telling symptoms of the problem is a chronic US trade deficit, clearly illustrated by a chart on page 40 (Annual U.S. Trade Balance in Billions from 1960-2008) which shows that USA had tiny trade surpluses until 1978 and substantial annual deficits thereafter. From 1998 until 2008 those deficits ballooned from $100 billion to over $700 billion each year, paid for by money borrowed from abroad and by selling over $3.5 trillion of US properties to foreign interests! Fletcher clearly explains how those deficits matter today and in the not-so-distant future.

The Real Economics of Trade section is a valuable contribution to any discussion of economic theory and history.  It starts by uprooting and severely pruning a basic myth of free trade advocates: the theory of Comparative Advantage first developed by David Ricardo in 1817. Ricardo described comparative advantage with this example:  since Portugal is better at producing wines and Britain is better at producing textiles, then Portugal should export wines to Briton and import textiles. It sounds reasonable, is still taught in various guises as economic gospel and is as fallacious as Aristotle’s teaching that the heavier something is, the faster it falls. In demolishing this quaint theory by exposing and then refuting with evidence eight unstated assumptions behind it, Fletcher deftly plays Galileo to Ricardo’s Aristotle. One of the most obvious pieces of evidence is the relative economic development of Portugal and Britain in the 100 years after Ricardo; Britain flourished and Portugal didn’t. Fletcher explains what caused this divergence in trade’s benefits and how that divergence relates to our own economic malaise. 

The following excerpt illustrates Fletcher’s tone and reasoning about comparative advantage: Continue reading

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My core beliefs about business, politics and the economy (1)

This post and future ones describe some of my core beliefs about business, politics and the economy by answering some fictitious Frequently Asked Questions. I’ve actually been asked these questions, but not frequently or in some cases not even recently. My purpose is to provide a context for interpreting past and future posts focused on specific issues. Your questions are welcome.

You’ve written several unflattering posts about executives of large corporations; Are you against big business?

No. Corporations are necessary legal constructs, much like traffic laws, for the economic and political systems in which we live. They enable people, other than the wealthiest or government itself, to pool resources to tackle substantial and long term opportunities. However, they are of necessity compromise legal constructs, which trade short term benefits of size and pooled resources for longer term risks. Both the public and Congress seem largely unaware of these trade-offs and the need to protect society from some of the risks. For example, when industries are dominated by a few behemoths― as is the case in the financial, automotive, oil and airline industries― they become strategic threats to our economy and to our national security.  They should be hobbled by behemoth specific regulations, a few of which I’ve mentioned in previous posts.

The legal structure for behemoths with widely distributed ownership makes it highly probable that their Boards of Directors will be risk averse and subservient bureaucrats who choose mediocre or worse CEOs and then do nothing to replace them with better leadership short of corporate suicide. We have seen this played out at GM, Citibank, AIG, BP and a host of other behemoths. This risk is amplified because of the general mythology that CEOs are answerable to stockholders and through some mysterious process corporate boards usually choose excellent people whose enormous compensation packages are justified by market forces. This mythology promotes a hands-off approach to big businesses and too much unearned respect for their leaders, many of whom are merely parasitic executives. We need to get real about the trade-offs and modify aspects of our corporate constructs while developing better external oversight. I write about the flawed process and sickly outcomes to counteract the mythology.

Another risk of behemoths is that their cultures are fundamentally unalterable. Once they become corrupted, as in BP’s case, in the cases of the financial behemoths or in the case of the Catholic Church, it is virtually impossible to change the culture from within. Boards which replace existing leaders from within a corrupted organization are either incompetent or not serious about changing the culture. BP’s board just did this, for the second time in four years, and GM’s board seems to have made the same mistake. Future posts will elaborate on this assertion.

Are you a Socialist?

That’s an interesting question, and my answer is “I don’t think so.” Neither am I a “Free Market” nor “Free Trade” capitalist because these ideas aren’t realistic or practiced by anyone. In the present economic crisis, I’m a Keynesian who believes in stimulus spending by government to save and create jobs. (However, I’m also convinced that substantially raising taxes on the upper 10% of incomes and wealth would help, not hinder, economic recovery. There is no evidence that Bush’s tax cuts stimulated the economy, but they did weaken our government.)

I was, until a few years ago, Continue reading

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BP’s Board is typical: clueless, spineless and still not serious about reform

By replacing CEO Tony Hayward with Robert Dudley, BP’s board once again appears to be doing its job and serious about reforming the company’s safety-last culture. Reality is starkly different. Two facets of its change-of-command clearly demonstrate that this board is not serious about reform, that it is clueless and that it needs a leader and some spine.  

Firstly, the Board has coddled the departing Hayward with money, time for a graceful exit and another job within BP, signaling that its members are clueless about his responsibility for the catastrophe, that they reward corporate loyalty over competence, and/or that they haven’t the stomach to take decisive action and risk combat and finger pointing with their departing leader.  In 2007, this same Board (only three of its 14 members have changed since then) appointed CEO Tony Hayward; a BP insider and board member to reform the same broken culture. He has grossly failed to do so, in fact I seriously doubt that he even tried, at a cost of 11 dead oil workers, an enormous loss of equity and dividends to stockholders, added insurance costs to the oil industry, uncertainty in future deep water projects and massive pollution of the environment which permanently degrades the lives of millions.

Secondly, the Board’s latest choice is yet another BP insider and board member; a man who starts with the same two strikes against him because he rose to the top by going along with the broken culture and because his power base is solely other people inside BP who have accepted and prospered from repeatedly choosing profits before safety.

If this Board was up to the task and serious about reform, it would immediately sack Tony Hayward, appoint an acting CEO, and then proceed to look outside for its top executive. This executive would probably come from another oil company with a safety record that models BP’s objectives. (Based on the recent performance by Big Oil’s top executives, the Board would have to look at smaller oil companies.)  He or she would be expected to bring in a cadre of lieutenants and appoint them to key positions throughout BP.

Such a course of action, probably the only one which can produce significant reform, is downright scary. It requires commitment and leadership which few CEOs and even fewer Boards have. It is far easier, as Shakespeare said through Hamlet, to “bear those ills we have than fly to others that we know not of”. Significant reform, which BP desperately needs to survive, Continue reading

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